Jefferies has raised its tanker earnings forecasts as geopolitical disruption prolongs voyages and reduces fleet efficiency, according to Splash247. The investment bank’s research finds that shipping shares, which tended to move against geopolitical risk in the first decade of this century, have increasingly risen alongside instability since 2021. It expects shipowners to continue benefiting from disrupted trading patterns into 2027 and 2028, potentially beyond.
The bank argues that tanker rates will ease more slowly than markets currently expect, although its outlook does not depend on spot earnings remaining at their present exceptional levels. Splash247 reported that Jefferies increased its 2027 daily earnings forecast for very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, from $60,000 to $65,000. Its forecast for LR2 tankers rose from $30,000 to $34,000 a day. Persistent trading inefficiencies, ageing vessels and future rebuilding of oil inventories underpin that assessment.
Fleet age could also help the market accommodate new deliveries. Jefferies estimates that 51% of crude tankers are at least 15 years old, against an orderbook representing about 27% of the existing fleet. Meanwhile, rerouting linked to the Red Sea and Hormuz crises has kept vessels at sea for longer. Splash247 cited Navios Maritime Partners chief Angeliki Frangou’s explanation that longer cargo journeys effectively reduce available vessel capacity.
Sanctions, regional conflicts and environmental rules are also dividing the merchant fleet into less interchangeable groups, Norden chief executive Jan Rindbo told the Splash Singapore conference. That fragmentation means more ships are needed to carry the same cargo volumes. However, Rindbo has cautioned that the tanker cycle could be nearing its high point, with Norden cutting its tanker exposure and shifting capital towards dry bulk.
Historical comparisons offer another reason for caution. According to Splash247, a Clarksons Research chart puts the current VLCC surge at roughly 17 times its long-term average, exceeding earlier peaks in capesize, LNG carrier and container markets. Those previous booms lost much of their exceptional earnings premium, often within months. The unresolved issue for tankers is how long geopolitical disruption will constrain effective capacity, and how quickly its removal could expose surplus vessels.