Global trade expanded by 4.5% to 5% in 2025 and is expected to grow faster in 2026, according to Trade Finance Global, challenging the view that tariffs and shipping disruption are bringing international commerce into retreat. In a discussion reported by the outlet, HSBC’s Global Trade Solutions team described a trading landscape increasingly shaped by regional supply chains, technology investment and digital services.
Asia is central to that shift. Trade within the region has been expanding at twice the global rate and now represents 60% of Asia’s total trade, the report said. The discussion also highlighted the contribution of technologies of the future, which have accounted for roughly 80% of world trade growth. Much of that activity involves the physical products and inputs needed for technology investment, including semiconductors and data-centre equipment.
Companies’ efforts to bring production closer to customers or into preferred locations are taking different forms across industries. In the Americas, the HSBC team pointed to semiconductor manufacturing moving onshore in the United States, while businesses for which scale and cost remain decisive are adding capacity in markets such as Mexico. The drive towards more resilient supply chains nevertheless requires capital, creating a constraint on how companies can reorganise their operations.
Financing those changes presents a challenge when banks are reducing costs and focusing on domestic markets while corporate customers pursue new trade routes. The discussion identified customer-led partnerships between banks as one way to bridge that mismatch. Such arrangements were presented as a means of supporting businesses whose international ambitions extend beyond their banks’ own geographical priorities.
Services are another source of change. According to the report, they account for roughly 70% of the world economy but only about 30% of global trade. Services trade is growing at twice the rate of goods trade, led by digital services. The HSBC discussion also examined how artificial intelligence is changing banking operations and widening access to information and analysis, increasing the importance of banks’ role as trusted partners.